World: Asia-Pacific Gender Based Violence in Emergencies Update – Q2 2026 (Special Release for El Niño)

World Sources: Gender Based Violence Area of Responsibility, United Nations Population Fund Please refer to the attached file. Special release on El Niño Preparedness and overall GBV Risks Country highlights : Afghanistan | Bangladesh | Indonesia | Myanmar | Nepal | Pakistan | Papua New Guinea | Philippines | Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) A rapidly developing El Niño — current forecasts indicate a high likelihood that El Niño conditions will persist through 2026 and into early 2027 — is introducing a new layer of risk across Asia-Pacific. As of mid-May 2026, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) assigned a 98% probability to El Niño conditions through May–July 2026, with forecasts remaining at 97–98% through early 2027. Subsurface heat anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have reached up to +6°C, more than double the values observed at the same point during the 2023 El Niño event. The Walker circulation is already weakening, with the Southern Oscillation Index at −11.1 as of mid-May 2026. For GBV actors across Asia Pacific, these forecasts signal a growing layer of humanitarian risk that may further exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and protection concerns. El Niño is expected to contribute to drought and heat stress in countries such as the Philippines, Papua New Guinea and across much of the Pacific , while increasing the likelihood of erratic or increased rainfall, snowfall, and flooding in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Afghanistan, among others. More importantly, these climate- related pressures may deepen existing gender inequalities and strain livelihoods, economic stability, and household coping capacities, factors that are consistently associated with heightened risks of intimate partner violence, child marriage, trafficking, sexual exploitation, and other forms of gender-based violence (GBV). GBV remains significantly underreported across affected contexts, limiting visibility of the full scale and nature of survi